Jordan's relative stability, explained
The Middle Eastern country is an oasis in a sea of conflict
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Jordan stands as one of the Middle East’s most peaceful countries. Which is amazing because it’s literally surrounded by a turbulent region marked by political strife, resource scarcity, and ongoing conflict. Remarkably, Jordan has managed to preserve its stability, yet it faces geographic and political challenges that could threaten this equilibrium. So how has this nation, with limited natural resources and surrounded by conflict, maintained its security and resilience?
Jordan’s geographic positioning plays a role
Jordan’s geography has been a mixed blessing. On one hand, it lacks the natural resources of its neighbors—no large reserves of oil or gas and very little arable land. But on the other hand, its unique terrain has protected it from some of the challenges faced by its neighbors. To the east and south, Jordan is bordered by the Syrian and Arabian deserts, vast, arid expanses that act as natural buffers. The Dead Sea, located along its western border, and the rugged Jordanian Highlands offer further barriers to movement, providing the country with natural defenses against external threats. The Jordan River in the west is another significant geographic marker, adding a layer of natural protection.
Yet, this geography also presents limitations. Jordan is among the driest countries globally, with an average annual rainfall of just 245 millimeters. Only about 20% of its land receives sufficient rainfall for even limited agriculture, and over time, urban expansion has further reduced arable land. Today, merely 7% of Jordan’s land is dedicated to farming, leaving the nation heavily dependent on imported food to meet the needs of its population. As a result, Jordan relies on allies, particularly the United States, for essential resources.
Finally, without the substantial fossil fuel reserves like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Syria have, Jordan must import most of its energy. The country’s only natural gas field produces just one million cubic meters daily, sufficient for only a single power plant. Oil, too, is scarce, with the bulk of Jordan’s energy needs coming from neighboring nations. While this reliance on imports places a financial strain on Jordan, it has prompted the country to seek stability and foster international alliances to secure these essential resources. This is a key point. Wealth in natural resources can be a financial boon, but it also brings negative externalities such as power struggles and corruption.
Jordan has been invaded… a lot
While Jordan has been independent since 1946, its history of conquest and colonization dates back thousands of years. The area has been ruled by an array of empires and kingdoms, from the ancient states of Ammon, Moab, and Edom, to the empires of Assyria, Babylon, Persia, and Rome. Each conqueror left a cultural and structural mark, but the region often remained at the periphery of these empires’ focus.
The Islamic Caliphates controlled the region for centuries, bringing it into the Muslim cultural sphere. The Crusades saw European forces constructing forts and castles before the Mamluk Sultanate gained control, fending off Mongolian incursions and preserving the region’s Islamic heritage. Eventually, the Ottoman Empire took over, ruling until the early 20th century, though with little investment in local development. Jordan became a relatively neglected province, leading to resentment among its people, who rose up in the Shoubak and Karak revolts in the early 1900s. When World War I erupted, Jordanians sided with the British, helping to drive out the Ottomans and paving the way for independence.
It was during this period that the modern Kingdom of Jordan was officially founded in 1946, led by Abdullah bin Hussein of the Hashemite family, who became its first king. While largely peaceful today, the country’s early years were challenging: war with Israel in 1948 led to the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, sparking conflicts and resource strains that persist today. King Abdullah was also assassinated in 1951, but the monarchy persisted, weathering numerous regional conflicts over the decades.
Breaking from its neighbors
Despite its tumultuous past, Jordan today has created a stable government centered on a monarchy that has ruled unbroken since 1946. This continuity has been a stabilizing force in Jordanian society, setting it apart from neighbors that have experienced revolutions and military coups. The Jordanian royal family, particularly under King Hussein (who reigned from 1952 to 1999) and his son, King Abdullah II, has maintained control through progressive policies and modernization efforts that promote social welfare and national unity.
Internally, Jordan’s Queen Rania has championed social programs focusing on education, women’s rights, and healthcare, and these initiatives have helped strengthen civil society. For example, today, over 99% of Jordanians have access to clean water—a notable feat given the country’s arid environment and limited resources. This isn’t to say Jordan’s society and cultural affairs are perfect, but the country has managed to thread the needle between progressive policies and traditional culture in a way that their neighbors really haven’t.
Externally, King Abdullah II has actively sought alliances with Western powers, fostering relations with the United Kingdom, the United States, France, and other allies who provide economic aid and military support. These alliances have been crucial for Jordan, giving it the means to compensate for its lack of natural resources and enabling it to position itself as a neutral actor in regional politics.
Which leads us to the final point in all of this…
Jordan’s diplomatic tightrope act
Jordan’s stability has been strengthened by its diplomatic stance and willingness to host refugees. It has welcomed Palestinians, Syrians, and other displaced groups, creating one of the world’s largest refugee populations relative to its size. According to recent reports (though notably before the Israel-Hamas war of the last year), Jordan is now home to around three million Palestinians, 1.4 million Syrians, and thousands of Circassians, Chechens, Armenians, and other displaced Christians from the Middle East. And throughout it all, remarkably, Jordan’s government treats these refugees with minimal systemic prejudice, a policy that has earned it respect among other Arab nations. Again, this isn’t to say there’s no prejudice. But the global bar is so low in this regard that Jordan has managed to come off as a welcoming country.
This openness to refugees has reinforced Jordan’s position as a neutral ground in a region where national borders are often sources of conflict. Even its relationship with Israel, a historic foe of the Middle Easterern/Arab world, has been normalized in recent years. In 1994, Jordan became only the second Arab nation to sign a peace treaty with Israel, a decision that risked backlash but instead bolstered Jordan’s economy by opening doors to Western aid and investment. This neutrality and relationship-building with Israel created a unique role for Jordan as a mediator, allowing it to benefit from the respect of both regional and international powers.
Jordan is getting riskier though
Recently, however, Jordan’s stability has faced new threats. In March 2024, Jordanian security forces intercepted a plot to smuggle arms, likely backed by Iran, into Jordan from Syria. This foiled attempt underscores growing regional tensions, as Iran seeks to expand its influence, potentially threatening Jordan’s stability. Over the past year, additional smuggling attempts have been uncovered, but not all have been thwarted, raising concerns about the potential for an anti-monarchy insurgency within Jordan.
In response, King Abdullah II has strengthened ties with the United States, even allowing Jordan to participate in actions against Iranian aggression, including intercepting rockets targeting Israel. However, this stance has caused tension within Jordan, particularly among the Palestinian population, who are sympathetic to regional opposition to Israel. These tensions reveal the tightrope Jordan walks as it balances alliances with Western nations against the sentiments of some domestic groups.
Jordan’s stability has been built on the foundations of a resilient monarchy, strategic neutrality, and international support. Its geographic challenges have made self-sufficiency nearly impossible, pushing it to rely on alliances for economic and military support. However, these same alliances have also insulated it from the chaos that has plagued its neighbors, allowing Jordan to emerge as a relatively safe and stable nation amid the region’s turmoil.
The future, however, remains uncertain. Jordan’s role as a neutral, stabilizing force could be compromised if rising tensions with Iran and internal pressures lead to unrest. For now, Jordan’s survival depends on its ability to maintain its delicate diplomatic balance, preserving stability in a region where peace is often elusive.
Trans Jordan is not relatively safe or stable, friend..
Denis