Is Europe going to freeze?
If the Gulf Stream and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse... then yes!
Welcome to another video launch day! As promised, I’m now creating Substack articles of all my weekly YouTube videos for those of you who strongly prefer to read rather than watch (I totally get it!). This week, we’re turning our attention to something rather unique: the potential (and probable) collapse of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which I will refer to as AMOC from here on because it is a mouthful! And of course, if you want to watch the video all about this subject simply scroll to the bottom.
But let’s start with the basics!
Europe sits farther north than you probably think. In fact, many of its major cities are farther actually north than their Canadian counterparts. Berlin, for example, is at about the same latitude as Edmonton! Yet despite this northerness, Europe’s (and Berlin’s) weather remains mild—at least for now. But this delicate balance could be changing. Scientists warn that the collapse of a crucial ocean circulation system, the AMOC, could plunge Europe into a deep freeze and disrupt global climate systems for centuries.
This would, obviously, not be good for Europe or the rest of the world so let’s talk about it!
The Gulf Stream vs. AMOC: understanding the basics
The Gulf Stream and AMOC are key drivers of the North Atlantic’s climate and ecosystem, influencing weather patterns, marine biodiversity, and regional climates, especially in Europe. Though interconnected, they’re not the same.
The Gulf Stream is a fast-moving, warm-water current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, flows along the eastern United States, and arcs toward Europe. It moderates winter temperatures in Western Europe, creating a milder climate in places like the UK, Ireland, and parts of Scandinavia.
AMOC, on the other hand, is a much larger system. It incorporates surface currents like the Gulf Stream and deep-water currents that circulate vertically and horizontally across the Atlantic. AMOC’s “conveyor belt” process begins when warm, salty water flows north, cools, and sinks near the Arctic. This sinking drives a return flow of cold water southward, which eventually resurfaces, warms, and completes a global loop over centuries.
While the Gulf Stream impacts regional weather, AMOC regulates global climate systems over the long term. Together, they keep Europe warmer than other regions at the same latitude, ensure steady rainfall, and help balance Earth’s temperature and carbon cycles.
Are they collapsing?
Probably! But we really don’t know for sure. It’s complicated to say the least.
Basically, the stability of the Gulf Stream and AMOC is threatened by rising global temperatures and melting polar ice. Historically, disruptions to AMOC have triggered abrupt climate shifts. During the last Ice Age, for instance, AMOC weakened due to freshwater influxes from melting glaciers, causing a sudden drop in temperatures across Europe and the North Atlantic.
Today, the situation is different. Human-driven carbon emissions are accelerating global warming, melting Greenland’s ice sheet, and increasing freshwater input into the North Atlantic. Freshwater dilutes the salty ocean water, reducing its density and preventing it from sinking, a critical step in AMOC’s conveyor belt process. Research indicates that AMOC is now at its weakest in over a thousand years, and a complete collapse could be within this century.
If AMOC slows or stops, the Gulf Stream will weaken as well. The immediate result: colder winters, rising sea levels along North America’s east coast (because the Gulf Stream has a pulling effect on water), and increased climate variability in Europe.
Okay so what happens if they do collapse?
A collapse of AMOC and the Gulf Stream would have profound effects on Europe, North America, and the entire planet. But Europe would obviously feel the brunt of it so let’s start there.
Europe: A frozen future
Without the Gulf Stream’s warmth, Europe’s climate would grow drastically colder. Winter temperatures in countries like Ireland, the UK, and Germany could begin to resemble those in Maine or Labrador, Canada—regions with harsh, snowy winters. And the Scandinavia countries would start to resemble Greenland with even more snow and colder temperatures! This would, obviously, impact a wide range of industries and resources across Europe.
Energy demands: Heating needs would surge, straining Europe’s energy systems.
Agriculture: Crops like wheat, barley, and fruits that rely on mild winters would struggle in shorter, colder growing seasons. Mediterranean staples—olives, citrus fruits, and vineyards—would face even greater challenges, destabilizing the global food supply.
Water scarcity: Precipitation patterns would likely shift. Southern Europe, already prone to droughts, could experience extended dry spells, threatening water availability for agriculture, drinking, and industry.
Biodiversity: Marine and terrestrial ecosystems would suffer. Cold waters would disrupt fish migration, while wildlife adapted to Europe’s current climate could decline or disappear.
But Europe isn’t the only one impacted here. I already mentioned North America so let’s head there next.
North America: rising waters
The Gulf Stream, as it exists today, currently pulls water away from North America’s east coast, helping to maintain sea levels. If it weakens:
Coastal cities from Miami to New York would face an increase in rising seas, more severe flooding, and bigger storm surges. This would be on top of what’s already occurring today. So… yikes!
And because of this, infrastructure and homes in these areas would be at increased risk, threatening millions of residents.
But of course AMOC is a global conveyor belt so there are bound to be even bigger impacts.
Global ripple effects
AMOC’s global role in redistributing heat and regulating monsoon systems means its collapse could destabilize entire regions:
Tropics: Seasonal rains in West Africa and South Asia, crucial for agriculture and water access, could become unpredictable, leading to droughts in some areas and floods in others.
Carbon Cycle: AMOC helps sequester atmospheric carbon by transporting it to deep ocean layers. A collapse would reduce the ocean’s ability to absorb CO₂, accelerating global warming and intensifying climate feedback loops.
Could they already be collapsing?
Unfortunately, unlike dramatic natural disasters, the collapse of AMOC and the Gulf Stream would unfold gradually over decades. Many scientists believe that AMOC has already weakened significantly, but whether this is part of a reversible cycle or a terminal decline is not known. The system’s complexity, combined with the lack of historical precedent for today’s carbon-driven warming, makes it difficult to predict its future. So it could be collapsing right now, and we wouldn’t know it for decades or maybe even a hundred years! It’s just too long of a time cycle for humans to really grasp and understand.
What we do know is that if AMOC collapses, it will take centuries to recover. The most recent collapse, during the last Ice Age, lasted for about 1,000 years. For Europe, North America, and the rest of the world, adapting to this new climate reality could be one of the greatest challenges ever encountered by humans.
The AMOC and Gulf Stream are vital to maintaining Earth’s climate stability. Their collapse would create a cascade of devastating effects: colder winters, rising sea levels, disrupted agriculture, and accelerated global warming. While we can’t stop some changes already underway, reducing carbon emissions and mitigating global warming could help stabilize these systems before it’s too late. Basically, anything we can do to keep the ice frozen on Greenland and out of the ocean will be incredibly helpful!
Here is some food for thought from the other side of the climate change debate (and it is a legitimate debate, not one triggered by fossil fuel interests), from electroverse.info (which now required a Patreon subscription to look at the whole thing):
"Greenland’s surface temperatures have been declining for decades, undermining alarmist ‘climate crisis’ narratives.
"A recent study (2024) by Thai scientists analyzed 31,464 satellite records from 2000-2019, finding an average temperature drop of 0.11C—a “non-significant change in LST [land surface temperature],” so states the paper.
"Such findings contradict the claim that Greenland is warming and that its melting ice sheet will cause catastrophic sea-level rise.
"Using rigorous statistical methods—including natural cubic splines and multivariate regression models—the study adjusted for seasonal patterns and spatial correlations to ensure accurate and reliable results.
"Slight warmer temperatures were noted in Greenland’s ice-free regions, but the researchers attributed this to “population density”—a familiar urban heat island distortion. Such nuances, however, don’t suit the apocalyptic script promoted by activists in academia and their pals in the media, so never are they mentioned. Instead, outlandish claims of the end of the world are promoted, such as the World Economic Forum’s recent assertion that Greenland’s ice sheet will collapse “within months.”
"It is hysteria alone that is driving the Net Zero agenda, not science.
"The Thai study corroborates findings from Japanese researchers who attribute Greenland’s recent ice loss (shown to now be rebounding) to natural phenomena such as the Central Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation, not human activity.
"This chimes with data from the bottom of the world, where Antarctica’s multidecadal cooling trend continues to baffle.
"A study published by the American Meteorological Society noted a 2C temperature drop over the past two decades, with significant seasonal declines detected. Other studies reveal cooling for the past 70-years, some even longer.
"The relentless demonizing of cheap and reliable energy relies on a cocktail of exaggerated fears, outlandish claims and scientific cherry-picking. Greenland’s 20-year cooling trend is just one more inconvenient truth for the Anthropogenic Global Warming Party to bury."
The bottom line being that while Europe might indeed freeze over decades from now, it will be in tandem with the rest of the world mainly from natural factors, and not mainly from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps from man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Those emissions and other man-made factors are a minor component of overall global climate influences, even with today's massive fossil fuel emissions.
By George, Gibson,
You got it wrong yet again. Gulf Stream to Monsoons are a resultant global's earth's weather 'phenomenons'. Read Our Weather of Dramatic Changes limited series in two forthcoming literary forms.
It is given now, that mankind is polluting his living planet, which as a result is causing the global weather warming of about two degrees Celsius or more, and one of the early effect is severe local climatic weather changes.
From final tipping point of about twenty-five years hence. From warming conditions, things will eventually go cold. Much like what you're predicting for Europe, (but also for the rest of the globe), not only for northern locales.
Only two geographics in North America will fare well. They are also diagonal opposite to the USA.